2018-19 YANKEES FREE AGENCY – THE FORK IN THE ROAD
2018-19 Yankees Free Agency – Left Turn Into A Spending Cap
The left turn is based on the theory, as previously mentioned, that Hal Steinbrenner does not want to pay a luxury tax ever again. With that in mind, the Yankees must stay below $209 million in 2019. That means that the 2018-19 Yankees Free Agency plan has $25.31 million left ($209 million – $183.69 million). Who is the most logical signing for the Yankees? He is pitching in Arizona this year and that is Patrick Corbin. Corbin would be 29 when the 2019 season started and there is a history of the Yankees looking into Corbin in the past.
The Yankees have been digging into background/scouting on Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin, one of the starting pitching options they’ve considered. He had a strong second half in 2017; eligible for FA after 2018.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 18, 2017
Corbin brings some metrics the Yankees covet. First, he is a left-handed pitcher which is a benefit in Yankee stadium. Secondly, he is a ground ball pitcher with a Ground Ball Percentage over 50 percent the last two seasons. Corbin also is coming off a season with a career-best K/9 rate of 8.45. Almost as important as everything already mentioned is that his innings have been going up in each season. 2017 saw him pitch 189 innings which implies he can be a 200 IP pitcher and that is rare in this era of baseball.
But when considering what the 2018-19 Yankees Free Agency plans, how could this marriage work? It is pretty straightforward. Corbin will demand a high dollar in free agency but what can be expected? We know that Yu Darvish signed a 6 yrs/$126 million deal in the offseason, Jake Arrieta signed a 3 yrs/75 million deal, and Alex Cobb signed for 4 yrs/ $57 million. Of those three, the comparable coming into the season was closer to Cobb from a career path perspective. But if Corbin continues to improve his comparable goes up especially since he would be younger than all of them. All things being equal, I believe Corbin is probably looking at a deal of 4 yrs/ $80 million – $100 million. If we consider the extreme price point, then we are looking at an average value of $25 which would keep the Yankees under the luxury tax threshold. Odds are it would be for less which would make Hal Steinbrenner a happy man.
2018-19 Yankees Free Agency – Left Turn Possible Lineup and Rotation for 2019
|2B||Gleyber Torres||Luis Severino|
|RF||Aaron Judge||Masahiro Tanaka|
|SS||Manny Machado||Patrick Corbin|
|LF||Giancarlo Stanton||Sonny Gray|
|C||Gary Sanchez||Jordan Montgomery|